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Financial Astrology with Ray Merriman

Comments For the Week Beginning June 2, 2003

by Ray Merriman


Most of the world stock indices continued higher through much of last week. In the United States, both the Dow Jones Industrial Averages and NASDAQ Composite closed at their highest levels since the lows of March 12. The DJIA is now up almost 20% in the past 10 weeks, while the NASDAQ has appreciated an even greater 27.6%. The fact that both have now made new highs past Tuesday of the 9th week, creates the first time this bullish characteristic has unfolded in over a year. It supports the idea that the 4-year cycle in U.S. stocks did indeed bottom last October 10, 2002.
 

The cycle is different in Europe, however. Here, the lows of October 10 were broken by the lows of March 12, 2003. And one has to wonder whether the 4-year cycle in European stocks began then, or is still unfolding with yet lower prices to come in the next few weeks. Nevertheless, European indices also fared well last week, with both the London FTSE and Swiss Stock market indices registering new cycle highs on Friday, exceeding their peaks of April 16. The FTSE closed at 4096, up 25% from the 3277 low of March 12. The Swiss market got as high as 4688 on Friday, which was slightly above the previous high of 4675 of April 16. But this slightly higher high in both markets was not matched by a higher stochastic (momentum) reading, which might be a sign that these markets are close to topping out. Besides the momentum divergence, other signs of bearish divergence are now present by the fact that neither the German DAX nor Netherlands AEX stock indices registered new cycle highs last week. Highs in one market but not in a related market is known as intramarket bearish divergence, especially when it occurs in a time band for a cycle top, or in a geocosmic critical reversal zone. These later markets rallied to close near their highs of the week, but the 2982 close on the DAX is still off from the 3068 high of May 7. The AEX closed at 280.60, which is down from the 295.60 high of April 16.

In the Far East, the most recent lows in the Nikkei and Hang Seng were recorded in late April. The cycle is much younger here than in either America or Europe, and thus have more possibility of continuing their recent bullish signs. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong reached a high of 9587 last Thursday, before closing the week at 9487. This is up 15% from the 8332 low of April 25. The Japanese Nikkei index closed at 8425, down slightly from the high of the week at 8462, which also occurred on Friday. Back on April 28, the Nikkei traded at a new 20+ year low of 7603. As stated before, the Nikkei is due (overdue) for several long-term cycle lows, including a 54-, 18-, and 9-year cycle trough. My bias is that the indices of Pacific Rim will lead the way of all world stock indices for the major part of this decade. Of course, it will take some time to confirm whether or not the lows of late April were indeed the beginning of several new long-term cycles. If so, these indices will be in new bull markets for several months, and even years.

As good as everything looked on the charts last week, there is concern not just from the perspective of some divergence technical and chart pattern studies, but also from our leading indicators, which is the field of geocosmic signatures. On Monday, June 2, the third and final passage of Jupiter in opposition to Neptune will take place. This is a Level One signature with a C/S value of 9.33 within 8 trading days. Level One signatures haves the strongest correlation to the completion of primary or greater cycle troughs or crests. Anything with a C/S score over 9.20 qualifies as a Level One type, as explained in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles. And primary cycles are those that have a periodicity of approximately 18 weeks in most markets, as measured from trough (low) to trough. The highest price between these troughs is known as the crest of that cycle. Since the stock markets of America and Europe have been rising for the past 10 weeks, and because we are coming into yet another powerful cluster of geocosmic signatures, we can assume that a primary cycle crest might be forming as we complete this third passage of the unrealistically euphoric Jupiter-Neptune opposition. As stated before, Jupiter is the principle of exaggeration and hope, while Neptune is principle of wishful thinking, but not usually clear-headed or objective thinking. The market has been rising smartly, and yet one has to ask if there really is a substantial basis for this optimism? Will corporate earnings really meet expectations? Will corporations start to hire new workers again, or will they continue to cut staff and costs? Will old alliances between nations (especially America) that have been strained recently, be amended?

But the Jupiter-Neptune opposition is not the only powerful signature in effect this week. On Tuesday, Saturn will begin a very important 2-year trek through the tropical constellation of Cancer. In astrology, Saturn in Cancer is considered its detriment, because Saturn rules Capricorn, the sign opposite Cancer. Whereas Jupiter is the principle of expansion (and greed), Saturn represents the principle of contraction (and fear). In Cancer, those principles are likely to be more evident, especially as Jupiter now moves out of aspect to Neptune. Delusion and euphoria give way to serious concerns about reality. The hope that “All will be forgiven or forgotten” will give way to demands of accountability – especially from countries or leaders that are Cancer-born, such as the United States and President George Bush. Last week, I wrote about my experience in Europe, where I am currently lecturing. I pointed out the huge chasm that exists between our (Americans) perception of how the world sees our leadership, and how the other countries really do view us. It is much, much worse than the vast majority of Americans believe. We believe we were victorious in an important war against an evil regime, and our (America’s) successful effort to rid the world of this tyrant should be applauded, or at least appreciated. I can tell you from my experiences here in Europe, that our “war effort” is neither applauded nor appreciated. As one reader expressed this week, “I do not believe the rest of the world viewed the recent event carried out by America under Bush as "victorious", nor do I believe the event that took place in Iraq to be viewed as a "war" by most of the world. Outside of America, the event was viewed as an "attack", by a country that feels it alone is entitled to own weapons of mass destruction, against a rather ill equipped nation, that was in no position to defend itself (as the world clearly saw).” This is not an uncommon view that I find here.

How will these differences in perception affect the world equity markets this week? Well, it may not be that evident in one week. But with Jupiter leaving Neptune by opposition (unreality) on Monday, and with Saturn entering into Cancer on Tuesday for two years (reality and accountability), I think America may begin to feel the impact of its actions in ways that it does not expect. And how this effects the future direction of America’s currency and its equity markets in comparison to others around the world is a concern. For now, I believe the recent rallies in world equities markets may be in for a shock, or a reversal of sorts, in the next 1-2 weeks. Besides the two major signatures referred to above, Uranus will also turn stationary retrograde on Saturday, June 7, and Sun will form an opposition to Pluto on June 9. These too are Level One signatures suggesting a primary cycle crest is possible within 8 trading days of their formation.

Disclaimer: No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.