This Monday will be a Memorial Day
holiday in the United States, and financial markets will
be closed. In typical
fashion, many of the world’s stock indices, and especially
in the U.S.A., rose in price going into this holiday week.
But Monday is actually a midway point of a cluster of 5 important
geocosmic signatures. These include Mars conjunct Saturn
on May 24, Sun square Uranus on May 27, Sun square Jupiter
on Monday, May 31, Venus in opposition to Pluto on June 3,
and the Sun square Neptune on June 5. The point in the middle
of this cluster is May 30-31, which is right now. In our
methodology, the midway point of a cluster such as this is
a critical reversal date, particularly if one of those signatures
is a Level 1 type, and occurs within three trading days of
this midpoint. That is the case now, as the Sun-Uranus square
of May 27 (Thursday) is within just two trading days of May
30-31.
The Sun-Uranus square is an important signature to stock
indices, as described last week. It has an historical 82%
correlation to primary or greater cycles within 11 trading
days. It is true that this range covers the May 17 low in
so many stock markets around the world. But that reversal
pertained more to the Venus and Neptune retrograde, which
happened exactly on May 17. So it seems that this reversal
zone, around May 31, would coincide with a temporary crest
from which there might be a pullback. In fact, that is what
seems to be happening in many of these markets.
Last
week saw most of the world’s
stock indices make their weekly highs on Thursday, May
27, or Friday. In Europe,
the German DAX continued to rally all week, making its highest
high since its primary cycle trough of May 17 on Friday,
at 3940.70. But it sold off into the close, ending the week
at 3902.70. The FTSE of London also made its high of the
week on Friday at 471, but likewise sold off into the close
to end at 4431. The FTSE looks much weaker than other indices
from a technical point of view. The Netherlands AEX climbed
only to 339.46 on Friday for its weekly high, before settling
back to 336.95 to close the week. It is not that much higher
than the 319.40 low posted on May 17. The Swiss Index peaked
even earlier, on Wednesday of last week at 5723.70. But it
ended the weak at a disappointing 5627.10. Each of these
markets appears either overbought and ready for a correction
(DAX and AEX), or quite weak (FTSE and Swiss).
In
the Far East, the Australian All Ordinaries rallied all
week, to peak at 3462 on Friday. This is very
close to
its all-time high of 3472.50 registered on April 23. But
like the others, it slipped into the close, ending the week
at 3447. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong was also strong all weak,
ending up at 12,117, just slightly off Friday’s high
of 12,222, and well above the 10,917 low of May 17. The same
was true of the Japanese Nikkei, climbing all the way from
10,489 on May 17 to 11,345 on Friday, before ending the week
at 11,309. It looks like both of these later markets could
go higher early next week.
In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
climbed to 10,222.20 on Thursday, well above its 9852-9862
double bottom of May 12 and 17. It closed the week at 10,188.
The NASDAQ Composite also topped out on Thursday, at 1991.90,
but closed only slightly lower at 1086.70.
So
we continue to see the lows of May 17th holding. That was
the perhaps the most important critical
reversal date
of the year for world stock indices, as identified far ahead
of time in this column. It was the day the both Neptune and
Venus turned retrograde. And as discussed before, Venus retrograde
is one signature that can coincide with a counter-trend reversal
that oftentimes lasts right into the period when it turns
direct. In this case, it turns direct on June 30. If that
low holds, and the market does indeed rally into June 30,
then it seems very probable that May 17 was a 50-week cycle
low (or double bottom) in all of these markets. If that low
breaks, then watch it. It probably means the 50-week cycle
bottomed back on March 24, and the new 50-week cycle has
already turned bearish, and won’t bottom until late
this year or even early next year.
This
week will be interesting because Venus will be in opposition
to Pluto for the second time in this
series of
three, because of the retrograde factor for Venus. During
the first passage, the grizzly abuse of Iraqi prisoners by
American soldiers was flashed before the eyes of the world.
It severely set back the administration’s integrity
on this war front, and from that time, George W. Bush’s
approval ratings have dropped substantially. As his rating
dropped, so did the stock market. This is a pattern we must
watch carefully from now through the election. Typically,
as the incumbent’s ratings improve, so too does the
stock market. As the incumbent’s ratings drop, so too
does the U.S. stock market. A particular danger now lies
before the White House based on past studies, for if the
stock market takes out the low of May in the month of June
(below 9852), it means the 50-week cycle is pointed down.
It also means the historical probability of the incumbent
being re-elected drops to about 20%. Now, I am on record
for forecasting that Mr. Bush will win this election. But
if June finds stock prices making a new multi-month low,
I would definitely hedge that outlook. Oh, in my view of
the astrology, it still looks to me that George W. Bush will
win. But in terms of this stock market correlation, it says
the opposite. I still think the astrology (as I read it)
will win out over the stock market correlation. It is my
belief, based on the chart of the United States and the day
of the election, that the American people will vote very
conservatively. They will not feel like making a major change
in direction.
But
for now, let’s see how this critical
reversal date affects stock indices. It suggests that these
markets
will pull back now. The question: how much? If only a correction,
then we would likely go higher yet into late June, following
this 3-13 day pullback. But if it is severe, it spells trouble
ahead, and probably into at least June 30.
Disclaimer
and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is
not to predict the future movement
of various financial
markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman
Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not
a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those
cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating
this column from English into a non-English language. This
weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader
on the relationship between astrological factors and collective
human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this
report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock
and financial markets throughout the world in the past week,
and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures
that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic
factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even
month, or even years, and the author’s understanding
of how these signatures will likely affect human activity
in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this
from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at
the military, political, economic, and even financial markets
of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be
made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is
to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological
climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The
hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological
dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events
and hence financial markets of the day.
No
guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being
made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely
the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author
nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for
those individual decisions. Reader should understand
that futures and options trading are considered high
risk.
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