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Financial Astrology with Ray Merriman

MMA Comments For the Week Beginning October 4th, 2004

by Ray Merriman

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Copyright 2004. All Rights Reserved.


The “Great Libra Ingress” and its positive impact upon stocks markets around the world took effect this past week. Almost all markets completed their corrective declines on Tuesday, September 28, as the last of the 4 planets (Mercury) made its ingress into Libra. To briefly review, the Sun moved into Libra on September 22, followed by Jupiter on September 25, Mars on September 26, and Mercury September 28. During that period, nearly all the world’s major indices declined, after forming significant crests during the prior three trading days (September 17-21). This, by the way, is a very rare and remarkable cosmic event. I do not know that it has happened before.

In Europe, the FTSE Index of London continued to be the stellar performer, soaring to 4663.90 on Friday after completing a 6-week cycle trough on Tuesday at 4528.10. The high surpassed the major cycle crest of 4630.70, realized on September 22 when the Libra ingress began. So far, only the FTSE has made a new cycle high in the European markets since the primary bottoms of August 13-16. The DAX of Germany came close, as it closed at 3995, just 5 points off its September 17 high of 4000. Its low was also posted on Tuesday, September 28, at 3848.30. The Netherlands AEX bottomed Tuesday at 321.90, following its prior high of 335.90 on September 17. On Friday, it closed at 330.90. The Swiss stock index closed at 5579, up considerably from Tuesday’s cycle low of 5428.30. It too is not far from its recent high of 5621.40, recorded on September 22. Each of these indices looks poised to continue higher this coming week.

In the Pacific Rim, we note that the Australian All Ordinaries continued making new all-time highs, reaching 3683 on Friday, after a temporary low of 3623 last Monday. Japan’s Nikkei Index bottomed last Tuesday at 10,738, then rallied to new weekly highs of 10,987 on Friday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index seemed somewhat subdued. After bottoming at 12,884 on Tuesday, it could only recover back to 13,120 on Friday, still a bit off from its 13,357 cycle high back on September 22. The technical picture on each of these indices, however, does not look as strong as the European indices.

In America, the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed at 9977.90 on Tuesday, September 28. This fits with our comments made last week, which stated, “If the market is going to favor George Bush, then it has to probably hold this 10,000 support area that is being tested now (at least 9900), and start its next push up. Can it do it? Yes.” Don’t count George W. Bush out yet (not that too many readers of this column have). By Friday, the DJIA closed at 10,192.70, close to high of the day and week at 10,198.60. But the action was even more impressive in the NASDAQ Composite, which soared to its highest level since the primary cycle trough of August 13, closing at 1942.20. That surpassed its previous high of 1925.90 on September 21. However, the DJIA is far from its previous high of 10,362 recorded back on September 7. Thus we may be seeing the beginning stages of an Intermarket bearish divergence set up. This week will be critical. If the DJIA cannot exceed that previous high, and the market closes down on the week, this could bode poorly for not only the stock market, but also George Bush’s chances of re-election, according to the “Pre-Presidential Election Year” cycle indicator that I have written about extensively herein. More on this in a moment. Elsewhere, the Argentina Merval Index also continued soaring all week, to a new multi-week high of 1166.24 on Friday. This market has now exceeded our forecast of a correction following the new cycle high of the previous Friday when our solar-lunar phasing indicated a possible top. I am not too worried about that, because lunar cycles are not as strong as geocosmic (planetary) cycles. And the “Great Libra Ingress” is a powerful combination of geocosmic factors. As we saw, they did indeed correspond with a powerful surge in stock markets across the globe. Furthermore they also coincided with sharp rallies in precious metals and many currencies versus the U.S. Dollar. Gold is back to $420.00/ounce. Just three weeks ago it was below 400.00. And Silver is again testing $7.00, when three weeks ago it was testing $6.00. That’s a gain of nearly 15%.

For the coming week, we note two important signatures. On Tuesday, October 5, the Sun will form a waning trine to Neptune. This is a Level 2 type, with a 61% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 12 trading days, and 52% within 8 days. And on Wednesday, October 6, Venus will be in opposition to Uranus, which is a Level 1 type (most powerful). This signature has a 71% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 10 trading days. With the NASDAQ Composite and FTSE and All Ordinaries all making new cycle highs unconfirmed by other indices in their regions, we need to be careful that a top of importance could be forming this week. But sometimes aspects to Uranus do not mean reversals. Sometimes it means a breakout of previously defined support or resistance zones. Given that I still believe that George W. Bush will win the election (based on my interpretation of the transits to the USA chart), then it becomes very likely (in my opinion) that the crest that occurred between the “Pre-Presidential Election Year” cycle trough of May 12-17 (9852 in DJIA) and August 13 (9783) will be taken out. That crest occurred in a double top formation as Venus turned direct in late June, at 10,471-10,487. If George W. Bush wins the election as I anticipate, and the DJIA does NOT test the 10,450-10,500 area, then it will be the first time since World War Two that an incumbent has won when the PPEY has been taken out after May (preceding the election),without the crest also being taken out before the election. Something like this did happen in 1940. Then, like now, matters of national security were more important to voters than the economy.

I would like to thank all the readers who send me such supportive letters last week, following my editorializing about this U.S. election. It seems that my prayers were answered. Not only did the two candidates give a good debate of substance on Thursday evening, but the news media gave a good amount of coverage to my concerns about resurrecting the draft in the United States. Spokespeople of both parties stated that their candidate had no intention of bringing back the draft. Yet there were numerous articles on the major news wires reporting the lack of military personnel available to continue the war on terror at this rate. Many of these reports clearly pointed out that something must be done to replace and refresh the current U.S. combatants not only in Iraq, but also at home and in other countries that may become “crisis spots” in the near future. Renewing the draft, they concluded, may be the only way to continue this war for much longer. And even the president admits that this War on Terror is likely to last for many more years. So even though some spokespeople for the each party say their candidate would not reinstitute the draft, I would still like to hear each candidate publicly say something like: “Read my lips. No new draft.” It is one thing to have a spokesperson say it won’t happen. It is quite another for each candidate to formally state it.

Longer-term, my outlook is that there will be surprising improvement on the conflict in Iraq in the next year. I believe it will go much better than anyone is predicting right now, and there will be a much welcomed sense of reduced conflicts beginning to take hold in the Middle East. We will see progress in Iraq. The stock markets will like this. Political leaders will exhibit great pride (and even arrogance) about their achievements. However, unless these gains are taken seriously and built upon, it could all fall apart into a greater mess than ever by the end of next year (after summer) and into 2006, and even through the remainder of the decade. There is a window of opportunity to build a real international coalition that both Kerry and Bush implied was necessary in their debate this past week. Let’s hope that they have the leadership to follow through upon this promise, and not just be satisfied with “early positive returns” and think the job is done.

And finally, the debate. Not only did the “Great Libra Ingress” coincide with the end of the corrective decline and a reversal upwards in most stock indices in the world, but it may also have coincided in a shift of sentiment in regards to the U.S. Presidential election. Most pundits believed that the debate would offer incumbent George W. Bush a chance to deliver the “knockout punch,” and coast home to victory. He was riding high in the polls, and all he had to do was appear confident and “presidential.” Instead, according to many news reports and “letters to editors” from readers of many of the nation’s leading newspapers, he came across very hesitant, unsure of himself, whining, and not at all very presidential. He did not deliver the “knockout punch,” and instead John Kerry is back in the race. If Kerry wins the election, we will look back at the “Great Libra Ingress” and see that it was the turning point in American (and maybe world) opinion of these two candidates. Instead of George W. Bush being viewed as the one to lead the U.S.A. at a time of crisis in national security, the public opinion may be shifting that it is John Kerry who can best provide this sense greater national security. I believe the U.S. will vote this election more on the basis of fear than confidence, and I thought this favored George W. Bush. But after the debate, the American people may begin to have a different opinion. All the polls clearly show that John Kerry dominated George Bush in that debate by a large margin. That makes this week’s coming debate a very critical one for George Bush. If he gives a repeat performance of last week, Bush may find he loses the lead, and possibly the election. And we will look back and see that the turning point was right near the time of “The Great Libra Ingress,” a confluence of geocosmic signatures that coincided with a major shift in collective conscience, with the result of changing the direction of the geopolitical world.

Announcement: This weekend is the last chance that you may pre-order next year’s Forecast for 2005 book at a special pre-publication discount price of $34.95. After October 1 (we will extend it into Monday, October 4), the price for next year’s book will become $39.95. As always, this book is written between October and November, and is shipped out upon return from the printer, around December 15. Order now and lock in your reservation for next year’s book! For further information on pre-ordering next year’s book, please go to our website at www.mmacycles.com, and click the banner on the opening page.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.