This does not look good for President George W. Bush. On the last Unemployment and jobs data report before the election, the amount of new jobs reported on Friday, October 8, was surprisingly much less than expected by almost all economic forecasters. Although it probably proves the Department of Labor does not “cook its books” the President, it nevertheless gives Democrats a lot of ammunition in their claim that this President is the first president since World War II to see a net loss of jobs on his watch. Still, since August of 2003, there have been 1.3 million new people put to work, which doesn’t sound so bad.

But the U.S. stock market’s response to this much weaker than expected jobs number was very worrisome. From a high of 10,270 on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 10,036 intraday on Friday, and closed just slightly off those weekly lows. The DJIA continues to exhibit lower highs and lower lows of the same cycle type, and that is a characteristic of a bear market. And a bear market going into the last three weeks of the election puts George W. Bush at odds with history on his re-election chances. As discussed many times before in this weekly report, there is a “Pre-Presidential Election Year” (PPEY) cycle trough that tends to form between October and March (sometimes May) prior to the U.S. presidential election. If that low is then taken out prior to the election, the incumbent party is defeated. The only time since 1944 that this correlation has failed was in 1984 when Ronald Reagan was re-elected by a landslide over Walter Mondale. But, interestingly enough, Reagan fell well behind Mondale after the first debate of that election. In fact, his performance was so utterly weak and he seemed so confused, that most voters wondered if “anyone was home?” He was that bad. But in the following debates, he recovered strongly, and so did the stock market, as he ended up coasting to a large victory.

There can still be similarities today. In 1984, the PPEY low occurred in February, and was taken out in the last week of July. The market then soared 15% in to the election. In 2004, the PPETY low occurred in either March or May (take your pick), but both were taken out with a lower low in August. Afterwards, the market began to rally, but unlike in 1984, it hasn’t yet taken out the high in between the PPEY low and the one that followed. But like in 1984, the incumbent, a Republican president, performed miserably in his first debate, looking confused, redundant, and worn down. And now we await and see if his subsequent performance can recover strongly, like Reagan did in 1984. And more importantly, can the DJIA rally back up to at least 10,450-10,500 before the election? If so, this stock market indicator will tip back in favor of President Bush. If not, then it favors a John Kerry victory.

But that is only the “stock market” indicator. And one indicator alone is not enough to base a conclusion upon. There are many astrological factors to consider too, I think. For one, I have stated several times that with Saturn in Cancer, the U.S. population is likely to voting on “fear,” and not confidence. And I have assumed that this collective psychology favors George Bush, just like it did Franklin Roosevelt in 1940. Back then, the market kept making lower highs and lower lows too, and Roosevelt was re-elected. I believe that was because the economy was not the biggest concern to Americans. National Security was. The country voted on fear, and didn’t want to make a change with such tension in the world. Roosevelt offered a steady hand and assurance that he was the one best suited to lead this country through these difficult and dangerous times.

Until last week’s debate, I think the American people, thought the same about George W. Bush and Richard Cheney. The Republican duo was far ahead in the polls, and threatening a run away victory. But with the first debate, all that changed. And it changed coincident with the “Great Libra Ingress” of September 22-28, when Sun, Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter all moved into Libra together. Such an important ingress (Libra is a cardinal sign), is indicative of shift in collective consciousness. The mood suddenly changes. Instead of seeing the Bush-Cheney ticket as the best to lead this country in a threat to national security, the public suddenly saw John Kerry as the more attractive candidate. Instead of showing massive support for the judgments about the War on Terror led by Bush-Cheney, the pubic suddenly began to doubt their good judgment. And in a matter of one week, the Bush lead has evaporated, and Kerry is either leading or tied with the President in most polls. And with the downgrade of the president’s popularity in these polls, so fell the stock market in the U.S.A. The election is far from over, but the “Great Libra Ingress” has turned the tide of public sentiment in a very dramatic fashion.

I also discussed the importance of the Sun-Mars conjunction of September 15, as correlating with 10% or greater reversals in stocks within 26 trading days. I assumed that this cycle correlated with a low August 13-16, and from there, the markets would appreciate at least 10% by the time this time band ends October 22. Well, as we loom around the world, we see that many stock indices did indeed fulfill this forecast, as many made new cycle highs in the last week. In Europe, the German DAX index got as high as 4078.50 last Tuesday, which was a critical reversal date by means of astrological factors (Venus-Uranus opposition on October 6). That move represented a 12.7% move up from the primary cycle low of August 13-16. The FTSE made a new yearly high on Thursday, October 7, at 4732.90, an increase of 10.5% over the 4283 low of August 16. In the Netherlands, the AEX index made a new cycle high of 339.40 on Thursday, also a 10.5% increase over its August 16 low. And the Swiss stock index reached 5624.40 on October 5 last week, an increase of only 6.8%. All made new cycle highs last week, but only the FTYSE made a new yearly high, which continuers the case of Intermarket bearish divergence. And now, nearly all of those Euro markets are exhibiting a technical bearish oscillator divergence as well (new cycle highs, but weaker technical studies). This doesn’t look too good for the new week.

In the Pacific Rim, Australia’s All Ordinaries index made yet another new all0time high on October 6 at 3726.80, but then sold off into the week’s close. This too is exhibiting bearish oscillator divergence. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng made a new cycle high on October 4 at 13,403, but didn’t move much after that, closing the week at 13,242. In Tokyo, the Nikkei got a big lift with a “gap up” last week, It reached a new cycle high of 11,410 on Thursday, an appreciation of over 8% since its low of August 16.

In America, the DJIA reached 10,270 last Monday, but that was well below the 10,362 cycle high so far, recorded back on September 7. But the NASDAQ Composite did make a new high (so did S&P), reaching 1971 right on the Uranus aspect date of October 6. This was up over 12% from the 1750 low of August 13. And in Argentina, the Merval index reached a new cycle high of 1175.21 last Monday, which is up over 27% from its August low of 924.11! But all of the American markets sold off as the week got underway, and all closed near their lows of the week.

So that makes this an important week. Let’s see what the new moon in Libra has in store for us on Wednesday and Thursday.

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Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

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