The equity markets of the world are a mess right now after last week’s performance.

In Europe, the German DAX could only rally to a weekly high of 3983.50 last Tuesday, well below its high of October 5 at 4078.50. But the low of the week was just one day later, at 3889.70, well above its low of September 28. It closed the week at 3935.10, and technically still looks more bearish than bullish, despite the critical reversal zone that is now in effect (October 20-21, +/- 3 trading days). The London FTSE looks very much the same, failing to take out the high of October 7 or the low of September 28 during last week’s trading, which ended at 4615.40. The Netherlands AEX performed likewise, making a weekly low on Thursday at 323, which is above the low of September 28. And the weekly high was far below the 339.40 level of October 7. It closed the week at 327, with technicals still looking weak, despite the fact that the low of October 20-21 in all of these indices represents the lowest price since the highs of early October, and occurred right on our turning point date. Only the Swiss stock market failed to make a lower low this week than the prior week. The high of October 5 at 5624.40 held, and so did the low of October 15 at 5329. It was an inside week, although the technical indicators here looked a .little stronger than their counterparts in the other Euro markets.

In the Pacific Rim, the Australian All Ordinaries failed to make an all-time high this week. The 3730m high of October 18 fell four points shy of the all-time high of 3734 on October 13. The low of the week was on Thursday, right on time, at 3795, and it closed the week at 3720.70. The Japanese Nikkei also made its weekly low on Thursday at 10,753, but that was still slightly higher than the 10,738 level of September 28. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was down all week, posting the low on Friday at 12,945. But that’s not too far off the cycle high of 13,403 of October 4.

In the Americas, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tried to rally early on, but could only get as high as 10,020.50 on Tuesday. Despite many efforts to recover, each day then took out the low of the prior day, with Friday’ sow finally breaking the 9783 level of August 13. It closed the week at 9757.80, just 4 points off the low of the entire week, and in fact, that was its lowest level since last November, 11 months ago. But the same was far from true in the NADDAQ Composite or the Argentina Merval stock indices. The Composite got to 1957.50 on Thursday’s critical reversal date, just 14 points below its yearly high of 1971 on October 6. Kt then sold off into Friday, closing at 1915.10, which is still above the 1899.30 level of September 28. And in Argentina, the Merval soared to 1262.39 last Monday, a virtual double top to the yearly high of 1294.06 recorded back on March 22. But Friday, the Merval had fallen below 1200 intraday, but closed the week slightly above, at 1204.46. This looks like a valid double top formation now, and if so, the Merval may be starting a more pronounced decline.

So in every part of the world, we witnessed several instances of divergence. Most indices fell into the later part of last week, which was right into the center of geocosmic cluster of signatures whose midpoint was October 20-21. In some cases, that decline was below the lows of the September 28, the center of the “Great Libra Ingress,” when Sun, Mercury, Mars, and Jupiter all ingressed into Libra within 6 days of one another.

You might remember that we spoke about this “Great Libra Ingress” event as coinciding with a shift in investor and voter sentiment. It was right after that the debates between John Kerry and George W. Bush commenced. At the start of those debates, George W. Bush was far ahead in the polls, and the Republicans were looking for the “knockout” punch. But President Bush failed to deliver, and in fact gave an embarrassing and miserable performance. The polls changed drastically, and Kerry surged ahead. It began to look like the “stock market indicator” would be correct, and the challenger would unseat the incumbent. That indicator, which we have discussed at length, postulated that a low, known as the “Pre-Presidential Election Year” (PPEY) trough, occurs between October and March (sometimes out to May) preceding the presidential election. If that low is then taken out before the election, the incumbent tends to lose – unless the market can then stage a powerful rally into the election. Well, the lows of March and May were taken out in August, which suggested that Bush, the incumbent, would lose. But then the market started to rally smartly, appreciating 6-10% in the following few weeks. It then looked like Bush would win. And now the rally has fizzled, and in fact on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to a new 11-month low. This indicator is clearly spelling trouble for President Bush. If it is to be valid, it strongly implies that John Kerry will be the next president of the United States. In fact, not since 1940 has the U.S. stock market made consecutively lower highs and lower lows of the same primary cycle type going into an election, and the incumbent still won.

And yet, President Bush continues to lead in most polls by 3-8 percentage points, with the election less than 2 weeks away. What is happening? Either the polls are wrong, and the stock market indicator will work after all, or the polls are right and the indicator will fail this time, for the first time in 64 years. Bear in mind that astrology, as I interpret it, supports the polls, and their might be a practical reason why that is the case this time. Unlike previous elections, the economy is not the foremost issue on the minds of voters. National and personal security issues are. And when the public is more fearful than confident, stock markets tend to decline. And when voters are concerned about national security issues more than the economy, they tend to not make a change in their leadership. They take a conservative approach at the ballot box. This U.S. election is really about one side wanting to make a major change, and another side that fears making such a change would create more chaos and uncertainty. These two dynamics are clearly shown in the chart of the United States, with the transits of Saturn through Cancer (fear of change), and transiting Uranus in a favorable trine aspect to Venus and Jupiter of the USA chart (desire for change).

Then idea that fear is rampant right now is shown in many other markets. Look at Crude Oil, still well above $50.00/barrel for the first time in history. Look at Gold and Silver, both reaching their highest levels since the Venus retrograde station in mid-May. Look at the Swiss Franc and Euro relative to the U.S. Dollar, also at their highest levels since the Venus retrograde of mid-May. All of these show fear is present in the United States, or about the United States, and not so much fear in the other countries, or about the other countries.

So when I suggest that George Bush will win this election because of fear, it is not because I support George Bush, or believe his policies are “best.” I base this analysis solely upon astrology, on my understanding of these transits to the chart of the United States. And I have to acknowledge that I think the White House has done a very effective job of instilling a sense of fear in the minds of voters, despite their claim that it is the Democrats who are resorting to “fear” tactics. And “fear sells” today, because as long as fear dominates the minds of the voters, they are less likely to risk making a change in the middle of a military campaign with soldiers’ lives at risk. Rather than to try to best the Republicans about what to fear, the Democrats and John Kerry might be better advised to stay away from that psychological battleground, because I believe with Saturn in Cancer, “fear” favors the incumbent. If John Kerry loses this election, when all the non-astrological correlations say that he should win, it is because he played into the game of “fear” advanced by this administration, rather than playing to his strong suit as a Sagittarian, which would be to inspire confidence and hopefulness about the future with him as the leader. Once again, Saturn acts as the most dominant factor in the art of Mundane Astrology forecasting.

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Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.